Valley residents encouraged to prepare for above-average hurricane season

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McALLEN — The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is predicting an above-average hurricane season this year.

NOAA is predicting 13 to 19 named storms, six to 10 hurricanes, and three to five major hurricanes.

There is a 60% chance of an above-average season, a 30% chance of a normal season, and a 10% chance of a lower-than-average season.

Several factors contribute to this busy forecast, including warmer-than-average Atlantic surface temperatures, and a likely shift to La Nina conditions.

This outlook was released recently by NOAA & National Weather Service (NWS) officials on Thursday during a press conference held at Jefferson Parish Emergency Operations Center in Gretna, Louisiana, commemorating the 20th anniversary of Hurricane Katrina.

“Katrina stands as a grim reminder of the need for preparedness and planning in advance of all severe weather and natural disasters,” said Kim Doster, NOAA director of communications.

Hurricane season is from June 1 to November 30, and officials urge families to prepare now and stay ready throughout the season.

Being prepared means having a plan. Families and individuals are urged to find places they can go in case of evacuation, identify a clear route, and consider any special needs in regards to elderly, pets, medical conditions and more. Additionally, planning on alternative ways to contact family and friends if separated is essential.

Putting together emergency supply kits consisting of non-perishables, water, medical supplies & medications, flashlights, batteries, phone chargers, important documents, cash, and other essentials could make all the difference, according to NWS personnel.

Officials say it is also important for home owners to ensure their houses are up to code, and flood and windstorm insurances are up-to-date.

Barry Goldsmith, warning coordination meteorologist with the NWS Brownsville-South Padre Island station, stressed the need to focus on direct as well as indirect storm impacts at the annual Rio Grande Valley Partners Hurricane Workshop Thursday.

He named five important threats to have in mind: storm surge, heavy rain-induced flooding, strong winds, tornadoes and rip currents, even if the storm is not projected to hit the Valley.

He encouraged Valley residents to know their risks concerning water and wind, encouraging them to identify whether they live in flood-prone areas as well as to identify their home’s structural risks and vulnerabilities, especially mobile homes.

“We need people to focus on the impact and that means getting away from just following the entity,” said Goldsmith. “If you focus on the skinny black line, you’d be missing the point.”

NOAA officials noted the high rate of death during severe weather events attributed to rip currents, accounting for 15% of direct fatalities during tropical cyclones. Another study found that 29% of rip current and rough surf-related deaths were connected to distant severe weather events that had no direct impact on the U.S. coastline.

During the 2024 Atlantic Season, all severe weather events impacting the Valley were classified as tropical storms. Notable occurrences in the region include the rainfall brought by Tropical Storm Alberto, as well as the storm surge felt on the coast and Hurricane Beryl’s production of rip currents and run up on the beaches.

As a silver lining for the above-average season prediction for 2025, NOAA also announced a 79% reduction in three-day hurricane track error since 1990 thanks to critical observations and model improvements.

“Our ability to serve this country has never been better,” said Ken Graham, NWS director. “We’ll continue to improve our services to make sure this country is prepared. We are ready here at NOAA, are you?”

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