Perryman: The Long-Term Economic Forecast for Texas Metropolitan Areas

Our latest long-term projections indicate that each of the state’s metropolitan statistical areas is expected to see significant job gains over the next three decades. Industrial concentrations and other characteristics vary notably, affecting the pace of expansion. Nonetheless, we should see widespread growth across the vast Texas terrain. Let’s briefly examine our latest forecast.  

The seven largest population centers in Texas are responsible for the vast majority of current and projected wage and salary employment in the state. Through 2053, these major areas generate almost 80% of net new jobs, with the greater Dallas and Houston areas alone accounting for almost half of them. 

For the Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA), long-term projected growth in wage and salary employment is forecast to be 1.88% per year, well above the 1.64% growth rate projected for Texas as a whole. The Dallas-Plano-Irving Metropolitan Division (MD) is also forecast to outpace the state, with employment increases of 1.79% per year over the long-term horizon, while net job generation in the Fort Worth-Arlington-Grapevine MD is projected to occur at a 1.64% annual pace.

The El Paso MSA has been experiencing moderate growth and is anticipated to see 1.49% annual gains. The Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land MSA is expected to add millions of new positions by 2053 (with a 1.60% annual rate of expansion). Employment in the McAllen-Edinburg-Mission MSA is expected to grow at a 1.58% annual rate. The San Antonio-New Braunfels MSA, the third-largest metropolitan area in the state by population, is projected to see annual job escalation at a rate of 1.66%. 

Although the largest urban regions generate the greatest concentrations of new jobs, smaller MSAs make important contributions to the overall performance of Texas as well. In fact, several smaller metropolitan areas are forecast to outpace or nearly equal the statewide rate, including Waco (with a 1.67% annual gain), Tyler (1.63%), Brownsville-Harlingen (1.63%), and Sherman Denison (1.63%). Other locales with employment growth rates at or exceeding 1.50% per annum are expected to include Midland, Abilene, College Station-Bryan, Laredo, Longview, Lubbock, and Amarillo. Each of the remaining areas is forecast to see job growth at a 1.33% or higher annual pace. 

The Perryman Group’s long-term outlook currently calls for economic expansion in each of the state’s metropolitan statistical areas. The largest population centers will naturally lead the way in terms of sheer numbers, but smaller cities and even many rural areas will also contribute notably to overall performance. Business cycles and unforeseen events are inevitable over decades. Moreover, there are numerous well-known challenges related to education, infrastructure, water, power, and other required elements for sustained growth. Even so, the long-term trend is expected to be one of sustained positive performance.  Stay safe!

Editor’s Note: The above guest column was penned by Dr. M. Ray Perryman, president and chief executive officer of The Perryman Group (www.perrymangroup.com). The Perryman Group has served the needs of over 3,000 clients over the past four decades. The above column appears in The Rio Grande Guardian International News Service with the permission of the author. Perryman can be reached by email via: shelia@perrymangroup.com.

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