Garza, Yates: Trump’s deportations will be felt most directly in America’s food security

If you eat American grown produce or meat, then you should be concerned about the current status of America’s food security. We’re not talking about scarce water supplies or Chinese investment in American farms. What we’re talking about is what it takes to plant, nourish, harvest, and prepare the food we consume on a daily basis. And what is takes is the hard work of millions of people spread out across farms from Alaska to Florida and everywhere in between.

Since his inauguration, president Trump has begun making good on keys pillars of his political agenda, chief among them his focus on migration. From downtown Chicago to orange farms in Bakersfield, sweeping immigration raids are having an impact throughout towns and cities, but perhaps most acutely on American farms. 

With an estimated 40% of farmworkers and 50-70% of food producers in the United States being undocumented, president Trump’s immigration policy priorities will have a direct impact on American food security. That is to say that the detention or removal of thousands of farm workers will lead to chain reactions of lost crops, skyrocketing labor costs, higher food prices, and ultimately the deterioration of our American agricultural sector. 

Even before the recent uptick in deportations, labor shortages were considered the single most pressing issue facing the U.S. agricultural sector. In 2023, of the more than 380,000 positions requested, farmers received fewer than 10,000 job applications from American workers. In 2024, the U.S. agricultural sector estimated a 2.4 million worker deficit across the United States. Simply put, there are not sufficient numbers of American workers to meet the labor needs of American farms.

Without U.S. based workers, some farms are giving automation a try. From cotton picking robots in Texas to AI trained apple harvesters in Oregon, technological solutions are finding their way to the fields. However, in addition to often being more expensive than hiring people, the machines frequently damage produce, can’t distinguish ripeness, and are slower than their human counterparts. Automation has proven particularly tricky for delicate crops like strawberries which are often damaged by the machines rendering the fruit unattractive to American consumers. 

As it stands, wholly domestic solutions are simply not viable. In the meantime, the effects of deportations will impact American farms and those who consume products grown from them. If the Trump administration insists on continuing to ramp up mass deportations, the least that the American government can do for America’s farmers – and U.S. food security by extension – is an expansion of the temporary agricultural migration program. 

The H2A visa program is a highly regulated, temporary migration pathway for workers from other countries to enter the United States and perform seasonal agricultural jobs. To receive an H2A visa, potential workers are first vetted to rule out criminal or immigration priors. They are then issued visas which are valid for a maximum of three years, with workers required to return home at the end of each work period. The rigorous vetting process combined with workers’ ability to come back each season results in very few H2A workers overstaying their visas or leaving their worksites. 

Over the last 10 years, the number of H2A visas issued has increased roughly 15% each year, growing from around 50,000 in 2007 to more than 310,000 in 2023. However, even with such an increase in agricultural worker visas, American farms continue to report serious labor shortages. The president of the National Council of Agricultural Employers estimates that if mass deportations continue, the number of annual H2A visas issued would need to at least triple just to maintain American farms operating at their current levels. 

To expand this program, the United States will have to take several concrete steps. First, while the H2A visa program does not have an annual cap, it is dependent on the visa processing capacities of U.S. consulates. An increase in consular officers dedicated to H2A visa issuance and a streamlining of the issuance process itself should be starting points. Simultaneously, the U.S. government would need to expand H2A worker recruitment. Currently, more than 90 percent of H2A visa holders originate in Mexico, but neighboring Central American and Caribbean countries should supplement the H2A workforce, drawing on the resources of U.S. consulates outside of Mexico. 

Finally, the H2A visa should be expanded beyond the picking or harvesting of produce alone to include the meatpacking and dairy farming professions. Historically, positions in these industries were not eligible for H2A workers because they were not considered seasonal. However, as the meatpacking and dairy industries have the highest rates of undocumented workers in the United States, these sectors are also the most at risk for labor shortages as deportations continue.

Without an expansion of the H2A visa pathway, farmers will be forced to raise wages, shrink their operations, and pass additional costs of production onto consumers. Expanding the H2A program is the best and most sensible path forward to ensuring the survival of American farms and America’s food security.

Editor’s Note: The above guest column was penned by Antonio Garza and Dr. Caitlyn Yates. Garza is a former U.S. Ambassador to Mexico and currently senior advisor to White & Case in Mexico City. Yates holds a PhD from the University of British Columbia and is a program officer at the NGO Labor Mobility Partnerships.

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