NWS says spring precipitation in Valley a ‘toss-up’

1 week ago 28

With much of the Rio Grande Valley still wringing itself out from last week’s historic rainfall, the National Weather Service Brownsville/RGV station has issued its outlook for April through June.

While the NWS three-month outlooks going back well into last year (and previous years) have predicted warmer and drier than normal conditions fueling a continuance of drought, precipitation chances for deep South Texas April-June are a “toss-up … with a slight lean towards drier than normal conditions, especially for areas west of I-69C,” according to NWS meteorologists.

“A normal to warmer than normal outlook is favored during the April-June 2025 time frame for Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley,” they conclude in the latest outlook.

The NWS advises that Heat Risk could become a factor through April, though — it being the Valley — May through June especially.

Meteorologists said the extreme rain of late March has caused “significant green-up across the region,” knocking drought out of the picture for the time being and reinforcing the state’s reputation as a “land of perennial drought, broken by the occasional devastating flood.”

“Drought/dryness and wildfire concerns have ceased for now and are no longer in focus, but high evaporation rates and the dry ‘lean’ may bring some issues back later in May and June if rains fail to materialize,” meteorologists said.

Despite the record-breaking rainfall, water supplies continue to be concern, according to the NWS. Although Falcon International Reservoir’s water level increased slightly after the recent rains, it remains near historic lows. Meteorologists said it’s almost certain that total water storage will remain at or near record lows through June.

“With the heaviest rain (March 26-28) concentrated over the southern parts of Hidalgo into northern Cameron and southern Willacy counties, water tables and underground water reserves in these counties remain in a better position to handle any lengthy dryness that develops compared to areas further west, in particular Zapata and northern Jim Hogg (counties),” according to meteorologists.

The NWS outlook expresses medium to high confidence (60-80%) that temperatures in the Valley will run warmer than normal April-June, and low to medium confidence (30-50%) of drier than normal conditions for the period.

“Confidence is medium-high (50-70%) that drought/dryness will continue or redevelop over deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley by May, but at lower levels,” according to NWS.

Meteorologists did not rule out the possibility of more heavy rainfall and localized flooding through the remainder of spring, and said it’s possible spring 2025 will experience a few more severe weather events — heavy rainfall, frequent lightning, wind and hail — compared to the same period last year.

The uncertainty over what will happen rain-wise the next three months makes multiple scenarios possible, the NWS said.

“Minimal rainfall April into mid-May could lead to increasingly drier soils via higher temperatures and evaporation rates by late May into June,” meteorologists said. “On the other hand, occasional rain/storm events would not allow for a return to widespread drought.”

The main weather/climate-related concerns this spring include the potential warm seasonal heat developing early, particularly in April through May, May being the likeliest, according to the NWS. Also, continued record to near-record low combined water storage levels at Falcon and Amistad international reservoirs, despite the late March deluge, spells continued restrictions on agricultural and municipal water usage for parts of the Valley, meteorologists said.

“Some threat for severe thunderstorms, heavy rainfall, and a local flood risk remains on the table April through June,” the NWS said. “Favored periods would begin in April and May, if storms develop.”

The NWS advised residents in the region to conserve water as much as possible at home and at work, and on farms and ranches, since increasing evaporation rates through June combined with insufficient rainfall could turn a surplus of soil moisture into a deficit by the end of the period.

Meteorologists further advised that it’s time to begin reviewing heat safety tips, flood safety tips and “continue to review severe thunderstorm safety tips.”

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