Nearly 40% chance of hard freeze forecast in Valley this winter

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The National Weather Service Brownsville-Rio Grande Valley station has released its latest three-month outlook, and it reinforces what meteorologists have been expecting for months: a warmer and drier than average December through February.

The factors behind this outlook include a more than 70% chance of (possibly weak) La Nina development combined with the continuation of other ocean-atmosphere “teleconnections,” according to NWS meteorologist/communicator Andrei Evbuoma, lead author of the latest outlook.

“This forecast does not mean it won’t rain, nor does it mean there won’t include major cool or cold snaps,” he wrote. “All mid-winter periods include several of each. In fact, we’ll be keeping an eye on the potential for at least one ‘Arctic Express’ event as we move into late December and January.

The outlook, co-authored by NWS Warning Coordination Meteorologist Barry Goldsmith, features a “low, but notable chance for a hard freeze and/or some icing in at least some areas at some point this upcoming winter season.”

But based on the latest forecast, combined water storage levels at Amistad and Falcon international reservoirs will continue at record or near-record lows, which means continued limits on agricultural and municipal water use, the meteorologists said.

The forecast likewise spells a growing likelihood of drought, which means an increasing threat of wildfire growth and spread — compliments of abundant dry grass and brush — as we move deeper into the season, according to the outlook. Low to very low humidity and gusting northwest winds following cold fronts will add to the risk through early 2025, according to the outlook

“The potential for an active winter wildfire event is in play,” the meteorologists said.

The key takeaways, according to the outlook, are a 60-80% level of confidence among meteorologists of a warmer and drier than normal December-February; the dry season has kicked in “full swing,” meaning no more chance of rain to fill up Amistad and Falcon for the foreseeable future; and 90-100% confidence that reservoir storage will remain at or near record lows through February.

Confidence is also high (70-90%) that 2024 will end warm and “largely rain-free,” with steady to slight decreases in storage levels expected to persist, the forecasters said, adding that “a water crisis will continue for some.”

November’s rainfall was limited and water tables in Hidalgo to Zapata counties are likely being impacted as a result, though water tables and underground water reserves in eastern Cameron and Willacy counties are in a better position to endure the dry season thanks to heavy rains over the summer, the NWS said.

Despite the warmer-than-normal forecast, the meteorologists are predicting cool air fronts in December through early 2025, with increasing potential for sharp cold fronts (temperature falling 40 degrees or more in a day), most likely from Dec. 20-Feb. 15.

Meanwhile, longer range forecast trends for December-February, January-March hint at colder than average temperatures across the northern tier of the United States, from North Dakota through Washington state.

“In prior winters, we’ve seen one or two strong systems break the dam retaining the colder air there into western Canada, allowing it to surge south across the Great Plains into northern Mexico,” the meteorologists said. “For us, the events of Dec. 22-24, 2022 … and Jan. 15-17, 2024 … provided one to two days of local hard freezes and pockets of icing or sleet. There is a 30-40 percent chance of the same thing happening between Dec. 20, 2024, and Feb. 15, 2025.

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