Duncan Wood: I wish I was telling a happier story about Claudia Sheinbaum

HARLINGEN, TEXAS – Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo may take over as president of Mexico in October, but her predecessor will still be pulling the strings.

This is the fear of Duncan Wood, a noted expert on U.S.-Mexico relations and president and CEO of the Pacific Council on International Policy.

“Up until now, it’s been Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s show. On October the 1st it becomes Claudia Sheinbaum ’s show. Or does it?” Wood asked, at a Global Trade Conference co-hosted by the Rio Grande Valley Partnership and Texas Regional Bank that was held recently at the Harlingen Convention Center.

“Andrés Manuel has promised to go to his rancho. He will retire from the stage and be done. But will he?”

Wood pointed out that López Obrador has been a permanent feature of Mexican politics for several decades now.

“I don’t think this is a man who could retire. I don’t think this is a man who doesn’t want to be part of the national debate. In fact, he needs to set the national conversation every single day, and he does that by having his morning press conference. Will he have his morning press conference from his rancho? Who knows?”

Wood acknowledged that continuing to have his morning press conference from his ranch may be problematical for López Obrador. However, he said the current president “can essentially force Claudia Sheinbaum to go along with his ideas.” And if she doesn’t, the president can “turn the party against her.”

That party is the Movimiento Regeneración Nacional, or Morena.

Duncan Wood, president and CEO of the Pacific Council on International Policy, speaks at a a Global Trade Conference co-hosted by the Rio Grande Valley Partnership and Texas Regional Bank. It was held at the Harlingen Convention Center on Sept. 12. (Photo credit: Rio Grande Valley Partnership)

Wood said López Obrador has ushered in a new reform, which allows for the revocación de mandato.

“This is the ability of the Mexican people to revoke a president’s mandate at the halfway point of their presidency. And if she (Sheinbaum) doesn’t do what he wants… What if he was to turn against her?” Wood asked.

“He (López Obrador) said, ‘Of course, I would never turn against Claudia, she’s the chosen one.’ But that risk is there, and that threat is there.”

Sheinbaum has said she is her own person. “We’re about to find out,” Wood responded. “But I always turn back to the question of, is she somebody who does what Andrés Manuel says, or does she just believe the same thing?”

Wood said Sheinbaum was asked recently, do you just do what your jefe tells you to do?

“There are certain gender dimensions to that question which are quite insulting. But she said, ‘Listen, just because I believe the same things as Andrés Manuel López Obrador, this does not mean I’m not my own woman. I’m doing what I believe.”

Wood said journalist friends of his visited Sheinbaum’s office when she was mayor of Mexico City.

“They all told the same story. They walked into her office expecting her to say, listen in public, of course, I support el jefe. But in reality, I’ve got my own ideas. But what did they find when they got into her office? Two photographs. One of her family and one of Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s inauguration as (what she believed to be) legitimate president of Mexico in 2006.”

Wood said Sheinbaum was with López Obrador on election day in 2006.

“She believes firmly that the election was stolen from him. She looks up to him like a father figure. She believes the same things up to a certain point. So, is there a ray of hope there? Sadly, not,” Wood said.

“Because, in fact, when you go back into her own childhood, this is a woman who was raised by pretty far ex-socialists who had a lot of Cuban politicians with them in their house, in her living room. When she was growing up, the conversation was all about the evils of capitalism. This is a woman who is even further left than Andrés Manuel López Obrador. She is just as nationalistic as López Obrador. And she has very firm ideas which are very much in line with his, if not more to the left.”

Wood said Sheinbaum’s Cabinet picks are a mixed bag. He said the appointment of Marcelo Luis Ebrard Casaubón as head of the economic ministry was a “great” appointment that sends “a good message.” He said Ebrard is “a more liberal, open facing kind of politician.” But Wood was less complimentary about the appointment of Rosa Icela Rodríguez Velázquez, who was interior minister for López Obrador. He said she is a “staunch nationalist” who will have a powerful role in the new administration.

“This is going to be a continuation of the concentration of power in the ruling party and in the president.”

Wood said he wished he was telling the audience a happier story.

He then explained why it matters to South Texas.

“Look at how we depend upon the success of Mexico. Just a year ago, I was talking about the potential for nearshoring to transform this region. Near shoring is happening, but it’s not happening in nearly the levels that we hoped it would. Why? Because investors are saying, ‘I know Mexico is a great option to invest for the long term, but right now is probably not the moment’,” Wood said.

“Look at what’s happened to the Mexican peso since the election on June 2. It has declined from 16 to the dollar to 20 to the dollar, and it probably has more to go. Look at the amount of money that is now started to leave Mexico. And it’s not foreign money, it’s Mexican money that’s leaving Mexico.”

Wood said there is a sense of uncertainty at this point in time.

“If you were to invite me back a year from now, or two years from now, I would hope that I could stand up on this podium and I could say I was wrong, because that’s what most analysts actually hope for when they give a pessimistic message,” Wood said.

“But I’ll tell you this, it’s not too late. There are messages that can be sent from the Rio Grande Valley itself, from Austin, Texas, from Washington, from Sacramento, California, saying, ‘We understand that you have a left-wing agenda. We understand that you are nationalists, but you’re also North Americans, and your prosperity and our prosperity depend upon us working together.”

Wood concluded his remarks by encouraging those in the audience to do just this.

“Let’s find ways to do that. It is ultimately less important which party is in power. It’s more about maintaining a positive business climate so that we can attract the investment that we need on both sides of the border. So, when you travel to Mexico City, take that message with you. Do not be afraid to tell them that what you want is a positive working relationship,” Wood said.

“But that depends upon having legal certainty, sanctity of contracts, etc. This is the message that has to be repeated time and time again. They’ve heard me say it before. They clearly don’t listen to me. But when they hear from people who are moving money, people who are moving goods, people who are investing in Mexico, who want to invest in Mexico, that’s the message that you really have to take with you.”

Editor’s Note: Rio Grande Guardian Editor Steve Taylor contributed to this story from McAllen, Texas.

The post Duncan Wood: I wish I was telling a happier story about Claudia Sheinbaum appeared first on Rio Grande Guardian.