SpaceX wants to launch Starships from Boca Chica nine times in 12 months

SpaceX wants to deposit Starships in the Indian Ocean as many as nine times over the next 12 months, all of them launched from Boca Chica, according to an 119-page environmental assessment (EA) from the Federal Aviation Administration.

This would include up to five “over pressure events,” or explosions from intact Starships belly-flopping into the water at terminal velocity — the fastest an object can fall through the air — after reaching orbit and reentering the atmosphere, according to FAA’s “Tiered Environmental Assessment for SpaceX Starship Indian Ocean Landings.”

The “explosive events” would take place as the result of the water impact causing structural failure, allowing the Starships’ propellants (liquid methane and liquid oxygen) to mix, according to the report.

SpaceX also presumably intends to attempt soft water landings, which “occurs when the vehicle descends to just above the surface of the water and then tips over,” according to the FAA. In any case, liquid methane and liquid oxygen (LOX), some of which will remain onboard, are not toxic pollutants, which can’t be said of all rocket propellants, the agency wrote.

A view of SpaceX Starship from Texas State Highway 48, the world’s largest and most powerful rocket, successfully launches from Starbase, Texas near Boca Chica Beach Thursday morning, March 14, 2024, which successfully reached orbit during its third flight. (Miguel Roberts/The Brownsville Herald)

In addition to hard and soft landings, some or all of the Starships could fail to survive the extremes of reentry and instead come apart in the atmosphere.

Whatever happens, many more Starships, intact or in pieces, will wind up on the ocean floor somewhere between Australia and Madagascar (5,525 miles apart and 12,000 miles from Brownsville) if SpaceX follows through on its plans and FAA keeps issuing launch licenses — technically the same license, but modified, each time.

The EA also details the expected debris field from non-intact Starship landings in the Indian Ocean.

“Debris created by either the Starship explosion or from Starship breakup upon reentry will create a debris field comprised of mostly heavyweight metals and some composite (e.g., carbon fiber) materials,”the FAA wrote. “SpaceX expects that the majority of Starship debris (stainless steel) will sink rapidly, due to the weight and composition of the steel. Some lighter items may float or stay suspended in the water column before sinking.”

Hundreds of spectators view SpaceX Starship, the world’s largest and most powerful rocket launch from Starbase, Texas near Boca Chica Beach Thursday morning, March 14, 2024, along Texas State Highway 48. (Miguel Roberts/The Brownsville Herald)

While stainless steel would account for most of the fragments, there would also be silica, aluminum, wiring, battery packs and plastic, according to the report.

Debris from an explosion is expected to be contained within approximately 0.5 nautical miles, or about 0.57 miles, of the landing point. Regardless of whether the Starship goes down intact or in pieces, no attempt at recovery or debris salvage would be made, the FAA wrote.

The EA also examines potential impacts on sea turtles, fish, sharks, whales and other marine life in the Indian Ocean, including the likelihood that any creatures would be directly impacted by a Starship landing, hard or soft, and concluding that the odds are against any such outcome.

SpaceX launched its Starship from its Boca Chica base on the morning of Thursday, March 14, 2024. (SpaceX screengrab)

“This is due to the small size of the components as compared to the vast open ocean,” the FAA wrote. “If debris from the vehicle struck an animal near the waters surface, the animal would be injured or killed. As stated in the 2022 (Programmatic Environmental Assessment), given the low frequency of the Starship/Super Heavy ocean descent and landing operations and the fact that marine wildlife, marine mammals, and special status species spend the majority of their time submerged as opposed to on the surface, it is extremely unlikely it would be impacted.”

As for the Thursday orbital test flight, in which Starship achieved orbital velocity for the first time, the FAA said it will again oversee the SpaceX-led mishap investigation. The Thursday flight saw the Super Heavy B10 booster self-destructing over the Gulf of Mexico and Starship S28 presumably disintegrating or self-destructing over the Indian Ocean during reentry.

The entire EA is available at www.faa.gov/media/76836.

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