Smith: The Demographics of Immigration

On July 8, Dr. Samuel Freeman wrote to suggest that I should have included a few paragraphs in my Asylum Claims article about our need for migrants considering our low birth rate, shrinking population, and need for workers to fill jobs vacated by retirements.

He was right. 

Spurred in part by Paul Ehrlich’s 1968 book, The Population Bomb, we have been concerned about overpopulation for decades. The world population at that time was about 3.5 billion. By 2023, it had doubled to 8 billion. 

Now it is predicted to level off by 2050 and then decline. Already, many countries are experiencing declines. For example, the birthrate in the US is predicted to be 1.79 births per woman in 2025, below the replacement rate of 2.1. Here are similar figures for other countries.

France – 1.64

Italy – 1.20

The UK – 1.54

Japan – 1.23

South Korea – 0.75

Canada – 1.33

Mexico – 1.87

Even though almost all countries have declining birth rates, most of those still above the replacement rate are in Africa. Nigeria, for example, is at 4.3, has a population of 230 million and could be the third largest country in the world by 2050.

Why is this happening and what does it mean?

Economics is the major factor. For a rural family, children can be a source of labor and an economic benefit. For an urban family, they are just a cost. It is estimated that raising a child to age 18 in the US can cost $310,00 or more according to the Brookings Institute.

What does a static population look like? If a country’s population remains static in terms of total numbers, that country will become poorer over time. People are living longer so the population mix will be more older people with higher social costs and fewer younger wage earners and taxpayers. 

This is an obvious problem country by country but it is also a problem globally. Author Jack Goldstone has cited several issues, including that “ Most of the world’s expected population growth will increasingly be concentrated in today’s poorest and most heavily Muslim countries, which have a dangerous lack of quality education, capital and employment opportunities” and “ For the first time in history, most of the world’s population will become urbanized, with the largest urban centers being in the world’s poorest countries, where policing, sanitation and health care are often scarce.”

For the developed countries I cited, immigration is obviously critical. Here in the US, there was a positive way forward a year ago, but it was never articulated by the Biden administration. It included two stages – those who are coming to the US and those who were already here.

For those seeking to come here, I repeat the Thomas Friedman quote “A High Wall with a Big Gate.” Put a stop to illegal crossings as the Border Patrol had largely done but reward those who are coming legally by revamping the asylum process.

For those already here – 

–              Give those millions who came here legally but overstayed their visas a reasonable time period to present their cases for staying – employment histories, families, home and/or business ownerships, tax payments, a lack of criminal records. Then they could pay a fine and take steps towards eventual citizenship.

–              Consider doing the same for the pending asylum and parole cases, even though it would be much harder for them to make their cases for staying. (Note the extended article “Scrap the Asylum System” in the July 12^th issue of The Economist.)

–              Don’t penalize the DACA students.

–              Weed out those who have committed significant crimes and either deport or prosecute them.

Obviously, this has not happened. As a result, we are in danger of losing people who have shown themselves to be not only fine citizens but also a part of the solution to our declining birthrate. This is not in the interest of our country.

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Editor’s Note: The above guest column was penned by border writer Morgan Smith. A frequent contributor to the Rio Grande Guardian, Smith can be reached at Morgan-smith@comcast.net.

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