Rosas: Deconstructing North America

During his first term, and contrary to his predecessors, Donald Trump showed no interest in the construction – or, say, continuity – of a North American Community. The possible consolidation of a North America of three countries (USMCA) came under stress. 

This was not always the case. 

Once the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) came into force on January 1, 1994, contacts between Mexico, the United States and Canada became more frequent. Canada discovered that once the Cold War had come to an end, it was freer to approach Latin American countries that were involved in economic reform processes and had come to terms with authoritarianism. Not only trade increased, but also investments and business contacts. Direct flights from and to Canada increased and it seemed that Ottawa could somehow balance the dominant role played for decades in the region by the United States.

In North America, summits did not start right after NAFTA came into force. In fact, it was after the 9/11 terrorist attacks that the United States understood the relevance of securing its borders while working together with Mexico and Canada to prevent security from interfering with the already intense trade and investment flows. The first North American Summit took place in Waco, Texas, with George W. Bush welcoming Mexican president Vicente Fox and Canadian prime minister Paul Martin in 2005. A year later, Mexico reciprocated by hosting the summit in Cancún. In 2007 the Canadian primer minister Stephen Harper welcomed Felipe Calderón from Mexico and George W. Bush in Montebello, Quebec. Again in 2008, the three amigos got together in New Orleans, Louisiana. Then, in 2009 under the framework provided by the Security and Prosperity Partnership of North America (SPPNA), Mexico’s Felipe Calderón, welcomed US president Barack Obama and Canadian prime minister Harper in Guadalajara, Jalisco.

Then 2010 and 2011 did not see any meetings happen. Instead, in 2012 Obama welcomed Calderón and Harper to Washington D. C. In 2013 no meeting was scheduled. In 2014, Mexico’s Enrique Peña Nieto hosted in Toluca, the meeting with President Obama and Prime Minister Harper. By 2016, it was the last time, prior to the arrival of Donald Trump to the White House for his first term, that the three amigos got together in Ottawa with Justin Trudeau succeeding Harper as Canada’s prime minister.

As suggested before, between 2017 and 2020, Trump did not endorse any trilateral meetings with the Mexican and Canadian leaders. Nevertheless, he denounced NAFTA as “the worst free trade deal ever,” and pressured to start negotiations with Mexico and Canada to conclude a new trade deal that was called simply USMCA – an acronym that includes the first letter of each participant country. That means that the negotiators from the three countries got together very often to have a new agreement with the provisions imposed by the Trump administration. Mexico and Canada expressed their commitment to work together by supporting each other during the negotiations. Unfortunately, this was not the case and Mexico and the United States concluded an initial agreement without Canada. Trump invited Canadians to join, and he established a time limit to do so. At the end, Canada integrated itself to the new document, but this process showed clearly that Trump disliked having Mexico and Canada at the negotiations table at the same time. Canada resented this and relations with Mexico quickly deteriorated. In Ottawa it was perceived that Trump and López Obrador got along and Trudeau, a liberal, was left behind due to lacking political empathy with the governments of Mexico and the United States.

Then Joe Biden arrived at the White House and tried to reinstall the North American summits of which only two took place during his term: the first in Washington in 2021 welcoming Trudeau and Mexico’s López Obrador, and the second one in Mexico City in 2023 with López Obrador hosting. Biden and Trudeau got along, and at this time, Mexico was finding it very difficult to work with them, particularly once Canada reinstalled visas for Mexicans. This was the main reason for not having a third North American gathering in Canada: López Obrador would not have attended it.

Then Trump arrived at the White House for a second term. His policies against multilateralism, regionalism, his attacks on allies and the relevance he gives to undocumented migration, organized crime, fentanyl and other drug production have dominated the North American scenario. Add to this the use of sanctions in the form of tariffs to, apparently, relocate, reinstall production and employment in the US to Make America Great Again (MAGA).

With this complex framework in mind, some suggest that the USMCA review process scheduled for 2026 may face several problems to continue the way it is. Some believe it make break into pieces and may be replaced with a Canada-US free trade deal and a separate Mexico-US free trade agreement as well. That would mean Mexico and Canada may distance themselves definitively from political and economic cooperation.

Federal elections in Canada are scheduled for next April 28. The liberals, once Justin Trudeau resigned, are quickly recovering under the leadership of Mark Carney, but the Conservatives expect to convince voters that they are the best option. Due to the impressive credentials of Carney, a former governor of the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England, Canadians may trust him to lead the country in the turbulent protectionist waters of Donald Trump.

Nevertheless, it is not clear how close Mexico and Canada could be during the USMCA review process. Canada has already established three rounds of retaliatory measures against US cars. Mexico, instead, has surrendered to most of Trump’s conditions. And there is also the perception in Canada that North America is composed by two, not three countries.

Some suggest that USMCA may evolve from a free trade area to a customs union. The difference between the former and the latter is that a customs union creates a common external tariff applied on non members. It has been anticipated that this measure would create a North American common policy against China. But to make it a reality, this would require political cooperation between the three (former) amigos. Trump is not interested. And Mexico and Canada do not talk much to each other these days.

Thus, the idea of a North American community is quickly eroding. But this is happening here and elsewhere. Look at MERCOSUR and the European Union. The two are having a hard time. In the case of MERCOSUR, there is a lack of political cooperation between the participants. In the European Union the 2008-2009 sovereign debt crisis, plus BREXIT, plus the COVID-19 pandemic, plus the war in Ukraine, have damaged the role and political room of maneuver of what not long ago was considered a major economic power.

Still, China and the BRICS (an acronym for the intergovernmental organization consisting of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) seem to be on the right path, far from the convulsions that North Americans and European face. But China and the BRICS are not isolated entities immune to what Trump does. Now that Trump has announced tariffs on most countries and regions of the world, including uninhabited territories near Antarctica, experts consider that it is just a matter of time before the world enters a profound recession. Yet China and its major ally Russia, are countries used to living with sanctions. Recently former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev said Russia barely trades with the US and Europe, accounting for only three percent of its total trade, and that most of it is covered by sanctions imposed in February 2022 and so forth. Thus, Trump’s sanctions may benefit some countries after all. The real problem is that the international standing of Washington is quickly eroding, and the US is not seen anymore as the leader of the world but its bully.   

Editor’s Note: The above guest column was penned by María Cristina Rosas, a professor and researcher in the faculty of political and social sciences at the National Autonomous University of Mexico in Mexico City. The column appears in The Rio Grande Guardian International News Service with the permission of the author. Rosas can be reached via email at: mcrosas@prodigy.net.mx

The post Rosas: Deconstructing North America appeared first on Rio Grande Guardian.