Report: Big losses projected for LRGV Agriculture due to water shortages

WESLACO, TEXAS – Big losses are projected for Lower Rio Grande Valley Agriculture due to water shortages, according to a new report.

The report, titled ‘Estimated Economic Impacts of Irrigation Water Shortages on Lower Rio Grande Valley Agriculture,’ was produced by the Texas A&M Center for North American Studies. 

The Center estimates a potential 2024 total loss in economic output of over $993.2 million due to the absence of irrigation water for crop production in the Lower Rio Grande Valley. It also estimates a loss of over 8,000 full- and part-time jobs.

The absence of irrigation water is due in large part due to Mexico’s failure to adhere fully to an international water treaty and deliver water to the United States, according to local farmers and irrigators.

The U.S. and Mexico share the water of the Rio Grande under the 1944 Treaty for the “Utilization of waters of the Colorado and Tijuana Rivers and of the Rio Grande.”  

The Treaty obligates Mexico to deliver 350,000 minimum average annual acre-feet annually over the defined five-year cycles. Now in year four of the current five-year cycle, Mexico owes over 736,000 acre-feet of water. Of the 1,113,288 acre-feet of water owed to the U.S. this cycle, Mexico has only delivered 376,915 acre-feet of water.  

“Predictable and reliable water deliveries from Mexico per the Treaty are critical to the LRGV,” said a press release issued by a group of stakeholders that included farmers, irrigation district managers, and agricultural businesses owners.

“Since the treaty was signed, Mexico has built dams and reservoirs to capture the water that should be flowing to the U.S. This report shows the economic ramifications of those actions which have led to unreliable and unpredictable water deliveries. The LRGV needs the water, and they need it now.”

According to the report from the Center for North American Studies, the current Mexican water deficit is the second-largest deficit in the last three decades.  

“I’ve been in the agriculture business for more years than I can count, and one consistent impediment to the LRGV’s maximum success has been Mexico failing to reliably, and predictably give us the water that is owed,” said Dale Murden, president of Texas Citrus Mutual. 

“You can’t turn the orchards on and off. It takes years to cultivate the trees for maximum production. Once the water stops, the trees can only survive for so long before they must be removed, and they won’t come back.”

The report starts out by setting the scene on the Valley’s agriculture industry.

“The value of agricultural production in the Lower Rio Grande Valley region, which includes Cameron, Hidalgo, Starr, and Willacy counties, was approximately $887 million in 2022.

“Total crop production accounted for about $673 million or 75.8% of total agricultural production led by feed crops, cotton, vegetables, miscellaneous crops, and fruits and nuts. 

“Livestock production and agricultural related production were about $85 and $129 million, respectively,” the report states.

The report points out that irrigation water is very important to agricultural production in the LRGV region because about half of its crop production acreage is irrigated. 

“Irrigation water shortages in the LRGV have occurred since the mid-1990s. These shortages were exacerbated in 1992, when Mexico began undersupplying the average minimum annual amount of 350,000 acre-feet of water into the Rio Grande, which continues today,” the report states.

“The treaty of 1944 requires Mexico to deliver 350,000 minimum average annual acre-feet annually over the defined five-year cycles. The water deficit for the current five-year cycle that started on October 25, 2020 is 673,892 acre-feet as of December 9, 2023 the second largest deficit in the last three decades (IBWC, 2023).”

The purpose of this report, Center for North American Studies says, is to estimate the economic impact of the absence of irrigation water for crop production in the LRGV region. 

The report points out that crops affected by irrigation water shortages are row crops (mainly sorghum, cotton, and corn) and specialty crops (mainly vegetables, citrus and sugarcane). Row crops can be grown in either irrigated or dryland production systems while specialty crops can only be grown under irrigation. All row crops and specialty crops are annual crops except for citrus and sugarcane. The lifespan of a citrus tree is over 30 years while sugarcane is typically five years. 

“The methodology used in the study is an ex post historical crop damage approach where the economic impacts are estimated by measuring the change in farm gate or regional gross value of affected row crops and specialty crops,” the report states.

Here are the findings:

Image credit: Texas A&M Center for North American Studies.

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“Our sugarcane farmers have been raising cane in the LRGV since the early 1970’s. As one of only three states left in the U.S. producing sugarcane, there must be a sense of urgency to getting water that is owed to the U.S.,” said Sean Brashear, president and CEO of Rio Grande Valley Sugar Growers. 

“The sugar mill in Santa Rosa must have enough sugarcane grown in the area to remain viable. Our employees and the businesses we support are depending on us to keep open the only sugar operation left in the State of Texas.”

Dante Galeazzi, president & CEO of the Texas International Produce Association, points out that the LRGV is one of the few places in the U.S. that can grow vegetables during the winter months, with 70 percent of the state’s total fresh fruit and vegetable production coming from the region.  

Galeazzi said producers have had to make difficult decisions on which crops to plant or to not plant at all.  

“Farmers have already stopped planting items like broccoli and celery, and soon we may not have onions, kale, cabbage, or other staples.  We are seeing vegetable and fruit plantings down 25-100% depending on the crop,” Galeazzi said.

“Not only are the farmers getting crushed by the lack of water, but the jobs that are associated with fresh fruits and vegetables, from the harvest to packaging, selling, transportation and down the line.”

Brian Jones, farmer and director of the Texas Farm Bureau’s District 13, said stakeholders from the farming community, irrigation districts, and businesses have engaged with the International Boundary Water Commission (IBWC), which oversees and implements the 1944 treaty.

Jones said the stakeholders have tried to stress the urgency of the issue. He said they have met several times while IBWC Commissioner for the U.S. section, Maria-Elena Giner. He noted that while the commissioner is currently engaged with the Mexican government on the issue, there have been no statements of pending water deliveries to the U.S.

“As a LRGV farmer, I cannot express more strongly the need for the current Administration to escalate this issue. South Texas not only needs the water to produce crops but also to ensure water is available for residential use,” Jones said.

“Not only is irrigation water used for agricultural purposes but serves as the ‘push’ to move water into residential systems, without it, our irrigation districts’ ability to supply water to all users is in jeopardy. This is not just a farmer problem.”

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