Perryman: Metro Musings

Although uncertainty has increased markedly since the last forecast, Texas and its metropolitan areas are projected to see notable growth through 2029. The rate of increase is again expected to outpace that of the US, and many of Texas’ most populated areas will expand even faster than the state as a whole. Performance may be uneven and much of it backloaded into later years of the five-year horizon (and confidence intervals are wider than normal), but overall expansion is expected. 

Most of the state’s new jobs are likely to be added in the largest metro areas, with about 46% projected to occur in the greater Houston and Dallas areas alone. The greater Austin area is forecast to lead the way in the yearly employment growth rate (2.09%), while several smaller MSAs including Midland, Brownsville-Harlingen, and Tyler are also expected to add jobs at a substantial pace. Here’s a look at other highlights from our most recent projections.

The Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown MSA has experienced some slowing of late but remains a growth leader with strong potential. The area is projected to add nearly 150,300 wage and salary jobs over the next five years, the highest expansion rate in the state. The diverse Dallas-Plano-Irving economy is also well positioned for future growth, with ongoing expansion in both traditional and emerging industries. Employment in the Metropolitan Division (MD) is projected to grow at a strong annual pace for a total gain of 322,400 wage and salary jobs through 2029. 

The Fort Worth-Arlington-Grapevine area has been adding jobs at a healthy pace, a pattern which is expected to continue. Over the next five years 121,800 wage and salary jobs are projected to be added in the area. El Paso is forecast to experience notable job growth in a variety of industries, with 34,700 net new positions anticipated. 

The Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land MSA is forecast to add 355,900 net new wage and salary jobs over the next five years, representing a substantial growth rate. The McAllen-Edinburg-Mission economy is expected to continue to see broad-based hiring, with a five-year gain of 30,000 net new jobs despite some of the challenges confronting the border region. Our outlook for the San Antonio-New Braunfels area is optimistic, with a gain of about 123,700 net new wage and salary jobs expected. 

Although buffeted by tariffs, immigration policy, volatile energy markets, and other headwinds, Texas is well positioned to be a growth leader for the foreseeable future. The largest population centers will drive expansion and job gains, though smaller metropolitan areas will also contribute significantly. Business cycles are inevitable and the current situation poses many near-term risks, but looking across the next five years, significant economic expansion is likely. Stay safe!

Editor’s Note: The above guest column was penned by Dr. M. Ray Perryman, president and chief executive officer of The Perryman Group (www.perrymangroup.com). The Perryman Group has served the needs of over 3,000 clients over the past four decades. The above column appears in The Rio Grande Guardian International News Service with the permission of the author. Perryman can be reached by email via: shelia@perrymangroup.com.

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