Hamer: New World Trade Order — One Month In

One month ago, on April 2, 2025, President Trump’s “Liberation Day” marked the most significant changes to the global trading system in a century. 

The stock market has seen wild swings but remains near April 2 levels, and employment is holding steady. Major investments, like $500 billion each from Nvidia and Apple — with significant operations planned in Texas — signal confidence.

The initial plan for a 10% base tariff and reciprocal tariffs up to 50% globally has been scaled back to the 10% base tariff for a 90-day period. There also are 25% tariffs on aluminum, steel, cars and an eye watering 145% on most goods from China.

Notably, USMCA-compliant goods face zero tariffs, a testament to the trade deal Trump negotiated in his first term. In my view the USMCA is the best trade deal ever signed by the U.S. It has the strongest IP protections and is the only one with a section to increase SME trade. Mexico is now the U.S.’s largest trading partner and Canada the top export market. China has slipped from first to third as a trading partner for the U.S. 

At the Texas Association of Business, our Texas Leads Trade coalition is working to strengthen the USMCA, aiming for zero-tariff trade, reduced barriers, and increased legal labor mobility ahead of the 2026 USMCA review.

Even with the pause on reciprocal tariffs and zero tariffs on USMCA goods, the U.S. has the highest level of tariffs since the 1930s.

Texas, the top U.S. exporting state, has seen its trade lead grow and has the most to gain or lose when it comes to trade policy (and retaliation) so for TAB our focus is beyond USMCA. 

The Trump Administration, packed with trade-savvy leaders like Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, and Elon Musk, now seems focused on leveling the playing field for U.S. exporters and pressuring China to play by the rules. The U.S., long the world’s most open large economy, demands reciprocal tariff reductions and the removal of non-tariff barriers, like unfair EU regulations on U.S. tech firms. 

Israel’s new zero-tariff policy on U.S. goods in response to the new U.S. tariffs sets a strong example.

Other positive developments include the EU and China seeking trade deals, VP Vance’s efforts toward an India agreement, and a potential modernized trade deal on the horizon. This week, we saw a significant announcement that Apple is already reducing its manufacturing exposure in China, opting to have most of its devices shipped to the U.S. come from India and Vietnam.Additionally, strengthening ties with allies like the UK, Japan, and South Korea, alongside USMCA’s robust framework, will open new markets for U.S. exporters, benefiting Texas most as the leading export state.

However, during the 90-day tariff pause, protecting American small businesses and consumers is critical. I want to commend SBA Administrator, Kelly Loeffler, for supporting legislation championed by Texas Congressman and Chairman of the U.S. House Small Business Committee Roger Williams to double the loan limit available to small manufacturers from $5 million to $10 million. 

High tariffs, like 145% on Chinese goods and the 125% on U.S. goods imposed by China, must be reduced swiftly (as President Trump has teased) to avoid mutual economic harm. Tariffs act as taxes, often passed on to American businesses and consumers. And when small businesses have no reasonable alternatives on goods, relief should be provided. The U.S. Chamber this week offered a set of useful ideas. 

Overall, progress on reducing tariff uncertainty has been made since the new tariff order launched on April 2nd. With smart trade deals, an extension of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, continued deregulation, federal spending cuts, energy expansion, and U.S. leadership in AI, the U.S. remains poised for a strong 2025.

Editor’s Note: The above guest column was penned by Glenn Hamer, president and CEO of the Texas Association of Business. The column, part of Hamer’s Ham(m)er Time series, first appeared on the author’s LinkedIn page. It appears in the Rio Grande Guardian International News Service with the permission of the author. 

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