Garza: Tariffs, Tyrants and Trump.

Last Sunday, very different scenes played out in two of North America’s capital cities. In Mexico City, thousands of Mexicans rallied together to celebrate president Sheinbaum’s success in delaying most of the tariffs threatened by the U.S.. Meanwhile, in Ottawa, Mark Carney overwhelming won the race to be Canada’s next prime minister.

Both of these events come after president Trump invoked 25% tariffs on all Canadian and Mexican goods, declaring that the tariffs would be implemented without exclusions or exceptions. Two days later, the American president revoked tariffs on all North American goods that comply with the USCMA agreement, a 30-day reprieve reportedly spurred by an “excellent call” between presidents Sheinbaum and Trump. Despite the pause on many tariffs, steel and aluminum taxes still went into effect on March 12, to which Canada responded with retaliatory tariffs while Mexico has thus far held off.

While most Americans disapprove of these tariffs, President Trump continues to insist on such economic measures after his repeated allegations that neither of the United States’ neighbors to the north or south are doing enough to curb fentanyl trafficking and irregular migration. Both Mexico and Canada have staunchly denied such claims and ramped up their own border enforcement efforts.

In February 2025, president Sheinbaum sent an additional 10,000 members of Mexico’s National Guard to the border while extraditing 29 known drug traffickers, including Rafael Caro Quintero. That same month, U.S. immigration officials reported only 8,326 migrant apprehensions, the lowest monthly figure in decades. Canada, for its part, also announced plans to appoint a fentanyl czar and list drug cartels as terrorist organizations prior to the tariff impositions – all actions that appeared to be what president Trump initially wanted from his tariff strategy.

Beyond North America, in early March President Trump announced a second round of tariffs for Chinese goods, bringing the stacked tariff rate up to 20% for Beijing. China’s retaliatory tariffs against the United States also went into effect on Monday, March 10. Beijing’s more measured response specifically targets U.S. agricultural products. The EU, for its part, also announced retaliatory tariffs against the United States’ steel and aluminum tariffs, targeting upwards of US$ 28 billion in U.S. goods on Wednesday. For a full summary as to the state of the trade wars, click here.

Despite the one month pause, the tariff spat is likely far from over. Should all of the potential tariffs go fully into effect, the economic impact will touch up to US$ 2.2 trillion in merchandise and will likely have global macroeconomic impacts. President Trump acknowledged that these tariffs could lead to economic recession, though he has since stated that he doesn’t foresee an economic downturn. Regardless of his statement to the contrary, the impact of these tariffs is already being characterized as the Trump slump. You might also be interested in White & Case’s coverage of these political events which we will continue to monitor, in particular as they effect North America.

While inflation ticked back a notch in February, the effects of these tariffs (and potential future tariffs) are already being felt as stocks plummeted in recent weeks, with the DOW dropping nearly 900 points on Monday alone, and a government shutdown seemingly imminent. This uncertainty could be devastating to all three North American nations, with both Mexican and Canadian GDPs expected to decline anywhere between 2 and 5 percent. The CEO confidence index, for its part, reflects market nervousness for the United States’ economic future, falling from 6.3 to 5 out of 10 since January – the lowest levels since November 2012.

Casting aside nearly 80 years of U.S. policy on NATO and Russian aggression, president Trump also announced that the United States would temporarily suspend all military aid and intelligence sharing to Ukraine. This announcement came only days after a fiery exchange between presidents Zelensky and Trump in late February. President Trump is also considering revoking temporary protected status for the more than 240,000 Ukrainians who have sought protection in the United States since the war erupted.

On March 11, president Trump backtracked on the aid suspension, following an announcement that president Zelensky had accepted a U.S. proposed 30-day ceasefire. While Russia made few inroads in Ukraine last year, these policy changes by the Trump administration could have dramatic effects on the outcome of the conflict. Moscow’s response to the ceasefire announcement (in addition to elevating their activities in the Kursk border region) has been expectedly cagey, expressing concerns that this may be “jumping the gun,” apparently in line with a recently published document prepared for the Kremlin outlining a hardline stance.

President Trump has expressed his desire that the United States defend only some NATO allies rather than all. These massive policy reversals by president Trump toward European allies will no doubt lead to a reassessment in the United States’ geopolitical standing. European allies held their own emergency summit in support of Ukraine last week after the temporary U.S. aid freeze. The Ukraine suspension and wavering on NATO, have encouraged the formation of alternative Western coalitions sans USA, as some allies ponder whether the Trump administration can even be trusted with their intelligence.

Now seven weeks into the Israel-Palestine ceasefire, it is not immediately clear how much longer the pause will last. Tensions have risen with Israel calling for hostages to be returned by Hamas, and in turn, threatening to turn off all electricity in Gaza if they are not. President Trump has called for Gaza to be “emptied” while Muslim nations are calling for a second round of ceasefire talks.

On March 4, during the longest presidential message ever delivered to congress, president Trump offered some perspective on the first few weeks of his administration’s activities. The president focused on the number of executive orders he has issued as well as what he described as a return of the United States to the golden age. You can click here to follow the 76 executive orders and 97 lawsuits that have been filed since he took office.

Lastly, I’d like to invite you to take a look at a recent interview I gave to the Bush Center on what strategic and mutually beneficial U.S. engagement with Latin America could look like; a strategy Beijing has aggressively pursued throughout the 21^st century. I also want to congratulate my White & Case colleagues for being recognized by LatinFinance with the Deal of the Year Award, an extraordinary group of attorneys and great team.

I hope you are well, and look forward to staying in touch with you via Twitter and LinkedIn.

Sincerely, 

Antonio Garza

Editor’s Note: The above guest column was penned by Antonio Garza, the former US Ambassador to Mexico. The column first appeared on his website. It appears in the Rio Grande Guardian International News Service with the permission of the author. Ambassador Garza can be reached by email via: marla@m2strats.com.

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