Garza: A transformative moment, or simply more turmoil.

On June 24-25, NATO members hosted a summit at The Hague. 

Among the summit attendees’ pledges, leaders committed to investing 5% of their GDP on defense by 2035 and another US$ 46.5 billion in defense aid to Ukraine. 

On July 14, president Trump endorsed a plan for European allies to purchase U.S. military equipment for Ukraine. These announcements signal a more robust commitment to burden-sharing and military readiness among the alliance as well as a shift in NATO funding priorities that president Trump has promoted for years.

At the same time, the conflict in Ukraine continues with Russian forces making advances in the Donetsk and Sumy regions, including ongoing strikes that have resulted in civilian casualties as recently as this week. Thus, despite recent and unified NATO support for Ukraine, president Putin’s actions nonetheless demonstrate Russia’s ongoing intent to continue the international conflict.

In the Middle East, the regional landscape was momentarily but dramatically reshaped by a twelve-day armed conflict between Iran and Israel in June 2025. After rounds of airstrikes and escalating (mis) information campaigns, a shaky but nonetheless agreed upon ceasefire between the two nations was announced on June 23. This ceasefire temporarily brought some calm to the region, though the continued conflict in Gaza and ongoing tensions with Iran reflect another regional chokepoint prompting even more global instability.

Meanwhile, China and the United States continue to engage in an increasingly intricate power struggle. Beijing is aggressively working to fill the vacuum left behind by the United States following the closure of USAID and the end of the U.S.’s broadcasting network Voice of America. China’s show of force through incursions in Taiwanese airspace have also increased. And then there is the temporary deal reached between the U.S. and China in June which paused rounds of reciprocal tariffs between the two countries. Despite the momentary economic truce, both countries must reach a more permanent agreement by the new August 12 deadline, or tariffs could once again exceed 100%. 

Beyond China, tariffs remain at the forefront of U.S. foreign policy toward allies and strategic competitors alike, especially after the 90-day tariff pause expired on July 9. The Trump administration delayed reciprocal tariffs with a new deadline of August 1. Japan, Taiwan and the EU appear close to finalizing deals, others continue to negotiate, and some are likely to be hit with high tariffs beginning as early as next week. Brazil, for instance, has been threatened with up to 50% tariffs driven in large part by president Trump’s support of embattled former Brazilian president, Jair Bolsonaro. 

Given the ongoing uncertainties and negotiations, it is difficult to fully anticipate the tariff impacts for both foreign countries as well as the U.S. in the coming months. Economists do anticipate that the U.S. economy will slow substantially in 2025, though the extent of that contraction is not yet known. One thing is for sure, the more deals Trump gets, the more confidence the markets gain, although the “price” of victory is yet to be determined. Even so, CEOs and foreign leaders are already scrambling to try to modify supply chains while some companies have already made changes to their shipment routes to avoid passing through the U.S. 

On the bilateral front, the U.S.-Mexico relationship has not escaped the tariff debates either. While Mexico continues to seek exemptions from recently imposed steel tariffs, in mid-July, president Trump threatened to impose a 30% tariff on non-USMCA goods after accusing Mexican authorities of not doing enough to tackle drug cartels. U.S. commerce secretary Lutnick has also confirmed that the Trump administration will be looking to renegotiate rather than review the USMCA in 2026.

In Mexico, President Sheinbaum’s political agenda continues to advance, bringing both anticipated reforms and economic challenges. In June, the nation held its first-ever judicial elections with the ruling Morena party garnering most of the votes and a potential consolidation of judicial power. In addition to doubts generated by the judicial reform, Mexico is also experiencing heightened economic uncertainty as the tariff battles continue. Driven by these unknowns, BBVA has forecasted a GDP contraction of -0.4% for 2025. 

Meanwhile, Mexico has recently elevated their international presence. In June, President Sheinbaum participated in the G7 summit in Canada, her first major international appearance. During the summit, she held several bilateral meetings with attendees while promoting Mexico’s “Plan México” and investment opportunities. Though Sheinbaum did not meet with Trump during the G7, the two leaders did have a “good” phone call shortly thereafter. In early July, Mexico’s Foreign Secretary Juan Ramón de la Fuente attended the BRICS Summit in Brazil where he touted Mexico’s interest in developing strategic alliances. 

From stolen fuel seizures to anti-fentanyl initiatives, President Sheinbaum has taken a more proactive security approach as compared to her predecessor. The refocus in strategy is showing some early signs of success. Homicide rates were down 15% in the first half of 2025 compared to 2024, and fentanyl seizures at the U.S. southern border this year are on track to be lower than any recent year. While these are potentially very positive steps, it is too early to tell how successful Sheinbaum’s larger strategy will be, especially as allegations of potential linkages between senior Morena party members and Mexican cartels emerge.

Meanwhile, six months into his second term, president Trump’s immigration priorities are beginning to scale up. Immigration arrests have more than doubled since president Trump took office, averaging more than 650 per day in June. These immigration enforcement operations are increasingly targeting individuals in the interior of the country, rather than concentrating efforts along the border. On July 1, the U.S. Senate passed a budget bill allocating an additional  $170 billion for immigration and border enforcement. And in mid-July, a leaked ICE memo reportedly authorized authorities to remove migrants to countries other than their own – a controversial policy the Supreme Court recently cleared the path for. 

In response to these ever-larger immigration enforcement initiatives, public opinion on immigration appears to be shifting. A recent Gallup poll found that only 30% of Americans report an interest in further reducing immigration, down from 55% a year ago. Additionally, almost 80% of Americans consider immigration to be good for the country.

Lastly, I’d like to congratulate my White & Case colleagues on being ranked the most active international law firm in Latin America by Latin Lawyer for 2024. A lot is happening in the world at the moment, but here at White & Case Mexico we have – and will continue to – closely track all developments.

On a more personal note, in my last newsletter I introduced you to the U.S. Junior Women’s National Handball Team. I now have the pleasure of sharing that these young women will not only compete in the PanAm games next month but have also officially qualified for the Handball World Cup in 2026! You can learn more about their journey and find an opportunity to support them here.

For now, I hope you’re having a pleasant summer, and I look forward to staying in touch via Facebook, Twitter, or LinkedIn. 

Sincerely, 

Antonio Garza

Editor’s Note: The above guest column was penned by former U.S. Ambassador to Mexico, Antonio Garza. The column first appeared on his website. It appears in the Rio Grande Guardian International News Service with the permission of the author. Ambassador Garza can be reached by email via: marla@m2strats.com

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